Warren Buffett Issued a $277 Billion “Warning” for the Stock Market. Investors May Want to Ignore It (Mostly).

As of the end of the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.94%) (BRK.B 0.97%) held a record $277 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. Treasury bills on its balance sheet — more than double what it held six quarters earlier. The giant conglomerate has also been a net seller of stocks over the past year and a half. Since December 2022, its stock purchases have totaled $21 billion, but its stock sales have exceeded $137 billion.

Those capital allocation decisions could easily be interpreted as a warning from CEO Warren Buffett. He manages most of Berkshire’s equity investment portfolio, so record levels of relatively liquid capital imply he’s struggling to find stocks worth buying in the current environment.

One logical conclusion is that Buffett believes the stock market could decline sharply in the not-too-distant future. The S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.15%) has advanced by 45% since December 2022, which exceeds its historical average by a wide margin, so it’s not hard to imagine a correction may be on the horizon. However, investors should be careful in how they interpret Buffett’s $277 billion “warning.” The situation is more complex than it appears at first glance.

Buffett’s warning may not apply to the average investor

Berkshire Hathaway makes money in two ways. It wholly owns several dozen profitable subsidiary businesses, and it owns stocks and bonds that effectively generate value for it through capital gains, dividends, and interest payments. Buffett explained that strategy in his latest letter to shareholders: “Our goal at Berkshire is simple: We want to own either all or a portion of businesses that enjoy good economics that are fundamentally enduring.”

Importantly, Berkshire Hathaway has a GAAP net worth — otherwise known as “book value” — of $602 billion. By that metric, Berkshire is worth more than any other company in the S&P 500. In fact, its GAAP net worth exceeds those of Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia combined. Of that total, Berkshire had $285 billion invested in equities (stocks) as of the end of the second quarter.

So, the conglomerate would need to buy $2.8 billion worth of a stock for its stake to represent 1% of its portfolio. And even if the investment in question doubled in value, Berkshire’s portfolio value would only increase by a single percentage point, and its net worth would increase by less than half a percent. In other words, an investment of that size would ultimately be inconsequential.

Admittedly, that hurdle does not always stop Berkshire from buying a stock. For instance, it opened a position in Ulta Beauty in the second quarter that was worth a mere $266 million as of June 30. However, Ulta will never meaningfully move the needle for Berkshire because further share purchases are limited by Ulta’s $18 billion market capitalization.

This brings us to a key question: How many companies are big enough to be worthwhile investments for Berkshire? The answer is not many. Fewer than 200 publicly traded companies are worth more than $100 billion, fewer than 70 companies are worth more than $200 billion, and under 30 are worth more than $300 billion. Even fewer fall inside Buffett’s circle of competence, or that of his investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler.

Buffett said as much in that recent shareholder letter: “There remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of truly moving the needle at Berkshire, and they have been endlessly picked over by us and by others.” He ultimately concluded, “All in all, we have no possibility of eye-popping performance.”

However, that hurdle does not apply to the average investor. For most people, making $100,000 in the stock market would be a big deal, and there are no size-based limits on which companies retail investors could pick from among in pursuit of those returns. As such, the average investor should not interpret Berkshire’s massive position in cash and Treasury bills as a dire warning. It may say more about the conglomerate’s size than it does about the stock market.

Proceed cautiously, but don’t avoid stocks entirely

Readers should not interpret anything I’ve said to suggest that I think the stock market will only move higher from here. Recent economic data and elevated valuations suggest a stock market correction or a bear market are well within the realm of possibility in the near to medium term.

For instance, the disappointing July jobs report earlier this month showed payrolls increasing by far less than expected, while unemployment — though still relatively low — reached its highest level in nearly three years. That data raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve has waited too long to begin cutting the benchmark federal funds interest rate.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Labor Department recently said it may have overestimated by 818,000 the number of jobs added during the 12-month period that ended in March. A weakening labor market, coupled with elevated interest rates, could push the economy toward recession.

Additionally, the S&P 500 currently trades at 25.9 times earnings, a material premium to its five-year average of 23.5 times earnings or its 10-year average of 21.6 times earnings. That means many stocks are pricey by historical standards, so investors could quickly turn bearish if future economic data hints that a recession may be coming.

Here’s the bottom line: The stock market may or may not decline in the coming months, but investment strategies that depend on attempts at market timing can have disastrous consequences. So, while investors should be especially prudent about which stocks they buy in the current environment, avoiding the market entirely could be a costly mistake.

For instance, Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks since December 2022 — but the S&P 500 has advanced by 45% during that period. Investors who avoided the market during that time have missed out on substantial gains. Moreover, even if the S&P 500 declines sharply in the future, there is no guarantee it will give up all those gains. And investors who sell shares to avoid losing money in a possible correction are likely to also miss out on the recovery that history suggests would follow.