Stock market next week: Following strong global market cues on the US Fed rate cut and India-US trade deal optimism, the Indian stock market continued its winning streak for the eighth straight session. The Nifty 50 index regained the psychological 25,000 levels and ended at 25,114. The BSE Sensex finished nearly 82,000, while the Bank Nifty index was 139 points higher at 54,809. The broader market maintained momentum with Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 up 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. So, Dalal Street investors would be keen to see the continuity of this uptrend when trading activity begins on the NSE and the BSE on Monday.
According to stock market experts, the Nifty 50 index is facing a hurdle at 25,300. On breaking above this resistance decisively, they predicted the 50-stock index would touch 25,800 soon. On triggers that may dictate the movement on Dalal Street next week, market experts listed five major triggers that bulls and bears need to remain vigilant about: the US Fed rate cut, Donald Trump’s likely visit to India, the India-US trade deal, the India-EU trade deal, and the FII trade pattern.
Speaking on the outlook of the Indian stock market, Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment, said, “The broader trend remains constructive. Weekly moving averages are bullish, and daily averages are also becoming supportive. Importantly, the index has reclaimed the quarterly VWAP, with the monthly VWAP aligning with daily and weekly averages — strengthening the bullish structure. Both bulls and bears are advised to remain aware of these five major factors expected to dominate Dalal Street movement next week: US Fed rate cut, Donald Trump’s likely visit to India, India-US trade deal, India-EU trade deal, and FII trade pattern.”
Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market
1] Donald Trump’s likely visit to India: “The US President Donald Trump’s nominee for Ambassador to India has hinted that Donald Trump may visit India in November 2025. The new US government’s nominee for Ambassador to India told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday that the US is fully committed to QUAD. As India is hosting the QUAD Summit this year, the market expects US President Donald Trump’s visit to India by November. So, we expect the market to discount the relief in Trump’s tariffs in the near term, and hence a gap opening on Monday can’t be denied,” said Anshul Jain.
2] US Fed rate cut buzz: “The market is expecting a rate cut in the US Fed meeting scheduled next week. However, the market has already discounted a 25 bps rate cut. Any surprise announcement like 50 bps may set the bullish tone on Dalal Street, leading to further extension of the recent rally in the Indian stock market,” said Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth.
“Interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan will also be closely tracked for their implications on global liquidity and risk sentiment,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research — Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal.
3] India-EU trade deal: “Last week, EU officials said that India and the EU are close to sealing a trade deal as talks are going in a positive direction. This has triggered speculations that the EU may not levy 100% tariffs on India, which US President Donald Trump had proposed last fortnight,” said Anuj Gupta.
4] India-US trade deal: “The India stock market witnessed strong buying after the breaking of ice by the US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on their social media handles. Further progress in the India–US trade negotiations could boost investor confidence, said Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal.
5] FIIs’ trade pattern: Suggesting Indian stock market investors to remain vigilant about the FIIs’ trade pattern, N ArunaGiri, Founder & CEO at TrustLine Holdings, said, “The Indian market’s trading behaviours regarding Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are at present shaped by several key issues. The most significant one is the lack of earnings traction for the heavyweight indices, causing valuations to be high and preventing a definitive breakout. Secondly, the continuous weakness of the rupee has been a negative for foreign sentiment, especially amid a time when international currencies are becoming increasingly volatile. Third, India’s fading representation within the Emerging Market basket of the MSCI has resulted in the sharp re-rating of China being responsible, and has seen FIIs shed over $4 billion in August.”
“Global dollar weakness, if it accelerates, can provide a strong boost to FII flows into emerging markets like India, while any credible visibility on structural reforms domestically can further turn foreign investor sentiment decisively positive. Individually and collectively, these causes have witnessed continuous selling pressures and muted inflows and provided little relief for a turnaround on the horizon in the immediate short-term. Until these concerns ease, investors are best prepared for a correction phase and lateral movement within the markets, as opposed to a sizeable rebound in foreign inflows,” said N ArunaGiri.
“FIIs’ trade pattern holds key after the US President’s nominee for Ambassador to India hints at Trump’s visit to India. Some hope had brightened on Thursday when FIIs turned net buyers on Friday. In the F&O segment, they bought Indian shares worth ₹1,977.81 crore; in the cash segment, they bought around ₹130 crore worth of Indian shares. So, it would be important to see what kind of trade pattern emerges on Monday from the FIIs’ side,” said Anshul Jain of Lakshmishree Investment.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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