Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 22 pts; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open with mild positivity on Friday ahead of the weekend, supported by the positive cues from the global peers. However, Trump tariffs will continue to dent sentiments on Dalal Street. Traders will be keenly looking at inflation numbers from the US for rate cut cues.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 22.30 points, or 0.09 per cent, up at 24,674, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian stocks edged higher on Friday with investor focus now turning to a key US inflation reading due later in the day. Nikkei and KOSPI dropped half a per cent, while Hang Seng was up 0.8 per cent.

Supportive policy measures around GST reforms, import duty relaxations, and the broader ‘Swadeshi’ push are expected to lend resilience to domestic markets amid global trade headwinds, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “Investors await key US data releases later today, including Q2 GDP and initial jobless claims, which could provide further cues on global sentiment,” he said.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average notched record high closes on Thursday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.32 per cent to end the session at 6,501.86 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.5 per cent% to 21,705.16 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.16 per cent to 45,636.90 points.

The dollar was also battling headwinds from worries about Fed independence as President Donald Trump steps up his campaign to exert more influence over monetary policy, including his latest attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

The dollar index was at 97.917, on course for a 2 per cent decline in the month. Elsewhere, oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent crude futures down 0.68 per cent to $68.15 a barrel, while US crude slid 0.7 per cent to $64.14 per barrel. Spot gold was down 0.17 per cent at $3,410.69 an ounce.

In the absence of major domestic triggers, global developments continue to drive near-term direction, said  Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Traders are advised to align positions with the prevailing trend and exercise heightened caution in stock selection,” he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,856.51 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 6,920.34 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook
The short-term market outlook is weak, but since it is oversold, a quick pullback rally from the current levels cannot be ruled out. For day traders, 24,600/80,600 would be a key level; as long as the market remains below this, the weak sentiment is likely to continue, said  Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

“On the lower side, the market could slip to 24,350–24,300/79,900-79,700. On the flip side, if the market moves above 24,600/80600, the pullback could extend up to the 20-day SMA or 24,725/81,000. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the market up to 24,800/81,300,” it said.

This market action indicates a down trend continuation pattern.  The underlying trend of Nifty continues to be negative and more weakness could be in store for the short term, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. “The next lower supports to be watched are around 24,300-24,250. Any pullback could find strong resistance around 24,700 levels,” he added.
 

Nifty Bank Outlook
Nifty Bank formed a sizable bear candle with a lower high and lower low signaling continuation of the corrective decline, said Bajaj Broking. “Going ahead, failure to move above 55,000 will keep the bias down and will open downside towards 53,500-53,000 levels in the coming sessions. Key support is placed at 53,500-53000 levels being the confluence of the 200 days EMA,” it said.

Nifty Bank is trading below its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day EMAs and is inching closer to its 200-day EMA, which lies in the 53600–53500 zone, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities. “A sustained move below the 53500 mark could accelerate the downside momentum, paving the way for a further decline towards 52,900, followed by 52,400 in the short term,” he said.