As the Indian stock market opens for trade on July 11, all eyes are on key technical levels and sectoral strength amid a slew of corporate earnings, macroeconomic cues, and volatile global trade developments. Market participants are treading cautiously following a negative close on July 10, with benchmark indices locked in a narrow range for the sixth consecutive session.
Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Wednesday. The Nifty 50 closed at 25,355.25, down 0.47%, while the Sensex lost 345.80 points to settle at 83,190.28.
Nifty Consolidation Continues, But Trend Still Intact
Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research (Equity) at SBI Securities, commented on the current range-bound momentum: “On the weekly expiry day, the benchmark Nifty index closed on a negative note, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart — a sign of cautious sentiment among market participants. Despite the decline, the index continues to remain locked within a narrow consolidation band of 25,587–25,331 for the sixth consecutive session, reflecting a lack of strong directional momentum.”
Shah pointed out that despite the consolidation, Nifty is still trading above its key moving averages, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact. However, technical momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have slipped below the 60 mark, signalling weakening bullish momentum.
“The 20-day EMA zone of 25,290-25,250 will act as immediate support. If breached, the index may slide further towards 25,100. On the upside, the zone of 25,500-25,530 remains a stiff hurdle,” Shah noted.
Bank Nifty, Sensex Reflect Caution, Await Breakouts
The Bank Nifty also mirrored the broader market weakness, ending the session in the red. Still, the index hovers above its major moving averages — a sign of resilience.
“The 20-day EMA zone of 56,750–56,700 will serve as immediate support, while a decisive breakout above 57,300–57,400 is needed to revive bullish sentiment,” Shah said.
As for the Sensex, the index posted a second consecutive negative close. Immediate hurdles are seen at 83,400–83,500, while the 20-day EMA zone of 82,950–82,900 is likely to act as strong support, Shah added.
Sectoral Leaders: Financial Services, Tourism, PSUs in Focus
On a sector-specific note, Shah highlighted Nifty Financial Services, CPSE, PSE, and India Tourism sectors as likely outperformers in the short term, owing to favorable technical setups and renewed investor interest.
Global Cues: Wall Street Gains Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Despite mounting concerns over new trade tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, Wall Street posted modest gains on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 192 points (+0.43%) to close at 44,650.64, the S&P 500 rose 0.27% to 6,280.46, while the Nasdaq Composite edged 0.09% higher to 20,630.67.
“The mixed close on Wall Street came amid lingering uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade stance, as he continues to signal the possibility of higher tariffs across multiple sectors and countries,” Shah noted.
Trump recently announced 35% tariffs on Canadian imports starting August 1, and hinted at 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil, adding to investor caution.
Technical Outlook for Global Indices and Commodities
S&P 500 Index
“Technically, the major trend of the S&P 500 is bullish as it trades above crucial moving averages. It may head towards 6,350 in the near term. Support is seen at 6,240–6,220,” Shah observed.
Brent Crude Oil
“Brent dipped nearly 2% on Thursday. The trend remains sideways as the RSI oscillates between 40–60. The 200-day EMA zone of $71–$71.50 is a key resistance, while $67.50–$67.30 is immediate support,” he added.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
“The dollar ended flat. The 98–98.20 zone will act as resistance. On the downside, 97–96.80 remains a crucial support area,” Shah said.
FII/DII Flows Remain Positive
Foreign and domestic institutional investors (FIIs and DIIs) showed net buying activity on July 10. FIIs bought equities worth Rs 221.06 crore, while DIIs were net buyers of Rs 591.33 crore in the cash segment — a positive sign for market sentiment.
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What to Watch Today: Market Triggers & Caution Zones
With indices hovering near key support and resistance zones, today’s trading session may remain stock-specific and sentiment-driven, especially with upcoming earnings and macro data. Traders are advised to watch for a breakout above 25,530 (Nifty) or a dip below 25,250, which could set the tone for the next directional move.
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